China’s Potential to Blockade Taiwan using Missile Attacks on Ports

Summary/Abstract:

The possibility that the People’s Republic of China might use military force to try to reunify with Taiwan increasingly worries analysts, especially as China’s military investment increases and the political relationship between the PRC (China) and the Republic of China (Taiwan) deteriorates. Much of the military analysis of the relationship focuses on invasion scenarios, while a blockade is often casually discussed as a “less risky” way that China could use force to compel Taiwan to capitulate even if an invasion might not succeed. This paper points out some undesirable features of a traditional blockade in which China tries to interdict shipping approaching Taiwan, particularly by deploying the PRC’s surface fleet and submarines, and then builds a Monte Carlo simulation model of an alternative Chinese concept of blockade operations using stand-off missile strikes on ports to diminish cargo throughput to Taiwan. The military campaign analysis results suggest that China likely can substantially suppress Taiwan’s trade without risking its scarce and expensive fleet and with relatively low escalation risk. Though militarily successful blockades have rarely achieved all their political goals, that is partly due to targets’ preparation and resilience. We offer suggestions for Taiwan to build resilience and thereby reduce the probability of this potentially militarily effective concept of blockade operations.

Bio:

Eugene Gholz is an associate professor of political science at the University of Notre Dame. He works primarily at the intersection of national security and economic policy, on subjects including innovation, defense management, and U.S. grand strategy. From 2010-2012, he served in the Pentagon as Senior Advisor to the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Manufacturing and Industrial Base Policy. He is the coauthor of two books: Buying Military Transformation: Technological Innovation and the Defense Industry, and U.S. Defense Politics: The Origins of Security Policy (4th edition, 2021). He served as chair of the international security section of the International Studies Association (2019-2021) and is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. He previously held faculty positions at the University of Texas at Austin, Williams College, the University of Kentucky, and George Mason University. His Ph.D. is from MIT.